Trump win must run through Pennsylvania

Trump win must run through Pennsylvania

joining me now brent jabor he’s the host of a boom-bust Scotty nell Hughes the host of news views Hughes holland cook host of the very big picture and farren franzack our special nrs correspondent here start us off with uh where the candidates are today because i know they’re like uh skipping all over the country aren’t they um yes and no uh so we have a lot of the polls that are kind of closing in right now and we’re gonna be looking at the battleground states we’re gonna take a look at this first map here you’re going to see that we have president trump he is actually going to be crisscrossing

around making five cans campaign stops today he’s going to be in north carolina pennsylvania including joe biden’s hometown of scranton michigan wisconsin he’s ending the night in grand rapids michigan the same city where he ended the campaign in 2016. as for the democrats we have joe biden he’s mainly criss-crossing between pennsylvania ohio and then we have a guy who is we haven’t seen in a while the president obama you come he’s going to be in atlanta georgia

and your hometown of miami florida tonight now as we had before on that graphic you know many asking how many times has trump been on the campaign trail since let’s say october 12th so let’s take a look at that we have trump he’s made 51 stops in 40 states biden 31 19 states and this is one of those elections rick where you know we’ve covered a lot and biden really hasn’t had to go out and campaign that much and he’s still doing great in the polls they haven’t really

moved that much but trump you could see he is really working that’s an interesting point what does that say holland he’s done fewer appearances and he’s leading in the polls biden is wildly outspending trump so he doesn’t have to move around as much and if it’s working why don’t you sit tight and not only so it’s like a football game in fourth quarter you’re winning so you run the ball yeah run the clock don’t throw any passes and uh trump not only hasn’t raised big money from the big money guys he hasn’t put any of his own doe in so what he’s doing is very smart it’s very resourceful land air force one pictures for tv of a cheering crowd earned media as we say because he can’t keep up with joe biden being

everywhere on tv and on digital media with all that dough that’s interesting but the argument that we’ve been getting from uh president trump has been that this guy’s in a bunker and in many ways he’s right the guy has literally been in his basement right and yet his numbers don’t show or don’t reflect a person who’s not showing up out there how do you explain that well let’s look at this whether it was joe biden versus donald trump or mickey mouse versus snoopy as long as the red and the blue it’s the mathematics of the map was already going to be where there was regardless of who the

candidates are none of these states these states that are are going to possibly go either way we can’t tell they were going to be this way regardless it was republican and democrats that’s just how the democrat the the makeup of these states are then you add in the personalities of the people that’s where you start to go okay that’s where the surprises come in but like i said you always go back to 2016. these were the same states we’re just we’re kind of living in the same deja vu the question is are the people going to show up and be motivated to vote for joe biden where they weren’t motivated to vote

for hillary clinton that’s the question mark right now brent you’re going to be taking care of the big map for us tomorrow you’re going to be going all over the place talk to us a little bit about what the expectations are and what the polls are saying right now you know 50 states what 538 electoral votes it comes down to two florida pennsylvania this year it’s been florida ohio in the past last cycle we saw michigan and wisconsin play a big role but this year it’s all about florida and pennsylvania if trump picks up those states he’s really in it to win if not it’s going to be a long long night and he’s

going to have to turn some blue states red by the end of the night and i think one of the interesting things to your point about uh biden in a bunker i think normally you would say why isn’t he on the campaign trail but amid a pandemic the electorate especially the democratic electorate sees that as him being responsible he’s staying away from crowds he’s

forcing people to not be in these big crowds i think that’s a lot of why he’s actually stayed underground holland remember that saturday night live skit where i think it was chi-chi rodriguez or whatever his name was you say baseball has not been good to me or whatever you know i think covet has not been good for donald trump and and what the what the conventional wisdom or the polls that we’re seeing now say is women and older people are moving away from him compared to how many were with him in 2016. i don’t know which one of you guys wanted it’s a hot button deal with these seniors who are the most dependable votes and in terms of the bunker i’m just thrilled to see you all again i haven’t been in the broadcast center in washington since they kicked us out in early march not that i’m complaining about seven

months at the beach but uh we’ve managed to function in the bunker yeah and uh as you all said biden’s ahead in the numbers doing what he’s doing but let’s also look at the covet is largely impacted the seniors and those seniors usually are the ones that skew more republicans and you’re also going to but not this time i mean the conventional wisdom is the seniors are afraid to die afraid for their help to vote no no no if they don’t if they did not mail it in by now then they might not have the opportunity unless they get on the line that’s what we have to look at tomorrow are we going to see grandma and grandpa standing in line if they were not able to get their vote in time to have the effect on it is when you do have a

lot of these battleground states for example you have wisconsin you have minnesota you have iowa you have ohio you have a lot of these midwestern states hailed in the midwest but you have a lot of these midwestern states now that are seeing record cases again with covet you have wisconsin seeing a massive you’re saying it’s bad timing it’s bad timing is up 11 in those states at least in wisconsin he’s supposed to over sampling of the polls that’s once again where we air the caution that anybody who knows anything rick you’ve watched elections holland you’ve watched them it’s the oversampling georgia they’re saying georgia’s going to flip georgia’s not going to flip because when you look at the breakdown they’re just sampling atlanta and the urban areas they’re forgetting there’s the rest of the state the problem with that though is uh at this point at least again going back to conventional wisdom what most of the pollsters are saying is that this time around the pollsters are not reflecting the same as they reflected in 2016. in fact the biden

advantage compared to the clinton advantage is two to three times higher you buy it it’s hard to say you can’t look at those po you looked at those polls and despite what we saw and and like you said now they are two to three times higher but if you notice over the weekend everything started to tighten up in a lot of these battleground states things really are already starting to tighten up and to scotty’s point what you’re going to see but you have 24 hours right absolutely how

tight i mean they’re going to have to go but what we’re really going to have to keep an eye on on tuesday is obviously we’ve got 100 million early voters so far this year what you’re going to see is if you see that voter turn out heavy tomorrow especially in a state like florida where are you having where you have a high or arizona where you have a high elderly population that could really should we be concerned guys about uh what everybody i think the media is overblowing this but i want your take not mine uh should we be concerned about the post-election reaction in america holland um the

plywood guy’s kid going to go to any ivy league school he wants right with the plexiglas guys kid it’s a good day for home depot yeah and it’s it seriously it is sobering to walk the streets here in washington to see the precautions we hope things are cool but we haven’t known the winner before midnight of a presidential election in 1960 1968 1976 2000 2004 and of course 2016. so stock up on the popcorn and rick it comes down to how the adults act in the room if we see the legislators handling it well if we see an immediate come out it depends if this goes immediately to the courts you know we saw yesterday in harris county texas the supreme court ruled that a hundred thousand votes are not are going to be allowed to be registered um when the republican party was fighting that the drive-through voting is going to be allowed it depends

on how quickly if we see a lot of legal cases start bouncing yeah and that’s just going to create more turmoil and tension and fair and that’s an interesting point that scotty makes because i think it all comes down to which states come in early remember florida could be called almost before nine o’clock if florida goes to biden early it’s going to be it’s going to look

like a bad night for donald trump right right and you’re going to be on your laptop as we’re here tomorrow night you know kind of clicking the states to see which way they can actually it’s hard for him to win if he doesn’t win florida let’s be honest about it and the three of the three of us are in your office kind of looking and trying to figure out and that that’s what it does come down to his formula he has to win florida he has to win georgia he has to win north carolina and he has to win arizona he can’t lose any of those states and right now he’s either what according to the polls he’s either tied or

losing by just a little bit in the margin yeah but he can win he can win them all to be fair he can win every single one of those things for the closing of the polls we’re going to see where the high voter turnouts you know this rick if the panhandle the top the panhandle has high voter turnout yeah that’s the more conservative part of the state it’s the middle part of the state outside of the tallahassees and where the universities are those come back in high numbers then it’s

going to be a buy tonight southern florida miami-dade interestingly enough miami-dade is going to be the one that’s probably going to be right this weekend we started to see the polls in florida go back toward trump so there’s one pollster who’s calling a trump win by three i think and it’s a and it’s an a plus poll so florida did in fact tighten up it’s the i-4 corridor that’s tampa to orlando it’s miami-dade and broward counties which the cuban and the venezuelan boat is

completely pro-trump then you’ve got the panhandle as scottie mentioned which is also pro-trump so look these things are going to balance out usually miami-dade and broward county are democratic-leaning counties we’ll see what happens this time brent you want to say well i was just going to add about broward county that is going to be a key county because miami-dade there’s a lot of latinos for trump who are already ready as you’ve talked about many times the cuban-

american population down there right now it’s pretty pro-trump so that suburban fort lauderdale area where you have a lot of heavy biden voters if you see that voter turnout come up that’s when you’re going to have a good day for biden so it’s really going to it’s all going to be numbered and it’s going to be very close i’m not going to ask you guys to make a prediction on the election because we’re here to call it we’re not here to predict it we’re going to see what happens as it

goes but i will ask you this do you think we’re in for a long night or do you think this thing could be over tomorrow or maybe even into the morning the next day to brent’s point and and the map as you characterized it if biden gets florida those east coast votes come in north carolina flips we may know tomorrow night but the way they’re counting the millions of mail ballots in pennsylvania that’s a problem could be days quick i think it’s going to be well into the weeks to come

scotty i also said that we were going to be over the chronovirus in three months so i would not look at my timeline i think we’re going late into the night but we will have an answer by wednesday morning there you go that’s our super panel thanks guys we’ll do this again at five today by the way so that’s our news thanks so much for being

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