COVID-19 UK: Will lockdown in England be longer than in other European countries?

lockdown isn’t a strategy it’s a delaying action the question is how much time will this lock down by us simplify this right down think of it like a tug of war between two forces social distancing and the growth of the virus lockdown powers up social distancing but we’re not doing it completely and 50 000 people a day at catching the virus in the uk so the virus is still strong you can see this in action if you look at the first set of lockdowns last time around the uk delayed so growth was high when we went in france locked down earlier and with stricter measures so its lockdown was shorter ours was one of the longest in europe you can see this with scotland wales northern ireland maybe this time in england has delayed

will we see the same effect we do actually have a scientific assessment of the impact of lockdowns not for a month but for the two-week circuit breaker suggested by sage in september they analyzed what a two-week lockdown over the october half term would do to hospital admissions the white line here is what would happen with no intervention and all these are different scenarios like moderate strict total and this of course total being what we had back in april two things are true of all these scenarios first no matter what happens it takes some time to have an effect look hospitalizations keep on

growing even after lockdown has come in second under all these scenarios hospitals and admissions bounce back really very quickly in the strictest scenario this blue one total lockdown takes about six weeks in the second strictest which is roughly comparable to r1 takes about four weeks we’re in lockdown for longer so we’ll get a longer grace period but eventually the virus will come roaring back that’s why the question for the government is how will we use this time we’ve bought and for all of us can we change our behavior to stop lockdowns three and even four